Basketball fans in Alabama are looking forward to qualifying Sunday, March 13th. With the exception of a completely unexpected end to a six-game losing streak for Crimson Tide, Nate Oats will be competing in NCAA tournaments for each other for the first time since 2005 and the 2006 seasons.
Almost every reliable bracketist calls Crimson Tide a “castle” for the Great Dance. Perhaps the “public” could be more accurate. When the loss to Kentucky is accompanied by four more defeats in the regular season and a loss in an SEC tournament game, Tide limps to 17-15. Teams with 15 losses received applications for the NCAA tournament, but none with 17 wins. Because of its schedule and RPI rankings, Tide can infiltrate the field at 17-15, in the 10-12 seed range.
For the record, Crimson Tide did get a big bid in 2006 with 17 wins, but Mark Gottfried’s team suffered just 12 defeats. That year, Tide shared two games in the NCAA tournament and finished 18-13.
This, however, will not happen. Nate Oats ’team will win more games and they won’t have to sweat on another Big Dance performance. Basketball fans in Alabama have reason to be confident of the probability of a Tide on a solid seed in the 5-7 range.
Scenarios for the NCAA Basketball Tournament in Alabama
Note: These predictions are not based on any algorithm and are only assumptions about how the crop will develop based on the history of NCAA tournaments.
Finishes of the regular season and SEC tournaments are forecast
- 20-12; 3-1 in the regular season; 0-1 in the SEC tournament; NCAA 5-seed
- 19-13; 2-2 in the regular season; 0-1 in the SEC tournament; NCAA, the lowest 6-seeded
- 18-14; 1-3 in the regular season; 0-1 in the SEC tournament; NCAA 8-seed
- 21-12; 3-1 in the regular season; 1-1 in the SEC tournament; NCAA 3-seed
- 20-13; 2-2 in the regular season; 1-1 in the SEC tournament; The highest 6-seeded NCAA tournament
- 19-14; 1-3 in the regular season; 1-1 in the SEC tournament; NCAA Tournament, 7 sowings
- 22-12; 3-1 in the regular season; 2-1 in the SEC tournament; NCAA’s top 5-seed
- 21-13; 2-2 in the regular season; 2-1 in the SEC tournament; NCAA Tournament with the lowest level of 5 seed
- 20-14; 1-3 in the regular season; 2-1 in the SEC tournament; NCAA 6-seed
It is impossible for Crimson Tide to finish strong enough to climb the NCAA tournament with the 4th seeded. The forecast for this scenario is not included because it is such an unlikely outcome.
Bama Hamer will closely monitor the best bartenders and update the chances of sowing the NCAA Tide over the next three weeks.
Bracketology tournament Crimson Tide NCAA
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